Plentywood Herald

Farmers Should Avoid Plunging, Says Outlook

(From Montana State College)

This is the time to be conservative and avoid plunging. Reserves of cash and credit should be accumulated in times like this to tide over such years as 1919 and 1926. This is the keynote of the "Montana Agricultural Outlook for 1928," just issued by the Montana Extension service and prepared under the direction of M. L. Wilson, agricultural economist at Montana State college.

In general the crop season opens favorably. The Outlook points out that in most sections there are abundant reserves of moisture in the ground; that there is an increased amount of summer fallowed land ready to be put into crop; that there are normal supplies of feed on hand; that there is a two per cent decrease in number of horses; that there are about 8,500 medium sized tractors, 5,000 duckfoot cultivators and 1,500 combines already on the farms with a probable further increase of all of these implements during the season, perhaps to the point of over-expansion; that there are larger supplies than usual of certified and approved seed; that there are about three per cent less cattle, three per cent more sheep and 10 per cent more hogs.

With the increased acreage of winter wheat and a probable increase of spring wheat, wheat price prospects for the coming season are not altogether favorable, the Outlook indicates. Wheat growers are advised to hold production costs down to the lowest possible point and to make every effort to get the fullest benefit of the possibilities for quality production. Those who were unable to make a profit from wheat last year are urged to grow other crops.

Flax again appears to be one of the best crops to substitute for wheat where such substitution is necessary in areas where flax can be grown to advantage. Montana had a 45 per cent greater flax acreage last year than the year before but national production still was far below domestic requirements. Under the conditions it seems hardly possible to increase production beyond the point of national consumption this year which practically assures that the 40-cent tariff again will be operative to raise domestic flax prices above the world market level. Low cost flax harvesting methods through the use of combine-harvesters have been worked out in the state. Flax-wheat mixtures have proved valuable on certain irrigated lands. Growers are urged to plant flax early since rarely does the late planted crop return profitable yields. The Extension service has issued a bulletin on flax production which may be obtained from the county agricultural agents or from the Montana Extension service, Bozeman.

Oats, barley and corn have an unfavorable outlook from a cash crop standpoint and therefore their production must depend largely upon the facilities for turning them into cash through livestock. In some areas an increase in livestock feeding operations would be advisable and feed crop acreages should be increased in proportion. Since high quality oats for cereal manufacture brought a 30-cent premium over the regular market price last year, it would appear that there is opportunity for cereal oat production in some of the higher mountain valleys where the quality of the grain is particularly high. The gradual improvement of corn production and harvesting methods which make possible large acreages at low cost give this crop a place of ever increasing importance in many parts of the state.

Montana had a bumper hay crop last year and went into the winter with a greater supply than usual. However, the long feeding period has greatly reduced the supply so that the carry-over is little more than normal. While present hay acreage appears to be sufficient for all ordinary needs, attention again is called to the need for building up adequate reserves.

Providing satisfactory contracts can be made with sugar companies, the sugar beet acreage may well be increased in most areas of the state where the crop can be grown and marketed. Sugar beets are an important link in the rotations on irrigated land and from this standpoint, sugar factories, which provide a market for the crop, are important assets. Every effort should be made to provide enough acreage to keep such factories operating efficiently. The acreage should be increased in northern Montana and sugar beets should be given a prominent place in the farming systems of western Montana where a new factory will be in operation next fall.

The outlook for beans is still doubtful although the Great Northern variety which is grown in Montana is continuing to meet a strong market demand. It is predicted that another heavy increase in this variety will depress the market. Potato growers throughout the country are planning a large acreage which, if yields are normal, will result in continued low prices.

Increased prices for horses and mules may provide an opportunity for farmers to breed their best work mares and raise horses as a sideline. Beef prices are expected to remain favorable and more stable than last year providing no serious foreign competition is encountered. The hog situation indicates a continuance of low prices at least until next winter. The wool outlook is good and a reduced lamb crop due to unfavorable weather at breeding time last fall is expected to bring about a continuance of good times for the sheep man. Little change is looked for in dairy and poultry production.