Winchester Virginia Republican

Political.

THE PRESENT STATE OF PARTIES

We commend to our readers a perusal of the following address, from the two Nationals at Washington. It is believed to present an impartial view of the present state of parties on the presidential question.

To the people of the United States.

One part of the policy of those who strive, by whatever means, to prevent the re-election of the present chief magistrate of the union, is to subdue the hopes and discourage the efforts of his friends and supporters, by such representations of the state of public feeling as show his re-election highly improbable, or impossible. They seek to ensure victory, by raising a shout that victory is already won.

The great extent of the country, and the difficulty of accurately knowing, in one part, what sentiments prevail in another and distinct part, afford facility to this mode of practising imposition on the public. The people of New-Hampshire, for example, are assured, that it is no longer matter of doubt that Ohio and Louisiana will vote for the opposition candidate: while the citizens of those states are surprised, at the same time, by hearing it asserted, with a confidence belonging to real conviction, that not only New Hampshire, but others, also, of the New England states, perhaps nearly all of them give satisfactory proof of having joined the same cause. Whatever of coloring, of exaggeration, or we regret to add, of unqualified misrepresentation, this course of policy may require, seems, hitherto, not to have been found wanting. Not only are slight and doubtful manifestations of opinion, when favourable, swollen into importance, and magnified beyond all just degree, on the one hand; while, on the other, the most clear and decisive results of full popular elections, if unfavourable, are made to go for nothing; but, formal statements are, also, put forth, sometimes under the authority of names, such as are willing to be appended to them, which are known not only to be partial, but to be absolutely untrue, by those who have information on the subjects to which they relate.

Notwithstanding the general intelligence of the community, there may be danger that attempts of this sort, every where made, and long continued, will produce more or less of the effect intended, unless seasonably and properly counteracted.

It has been deemed expedient, therefore, on the eve of the adjournment of congress, that the friends of the administration, throughout the whole union, should be informed, from some source, or through some channel, in which they have confidence, what is the belief entertained here, of the present state, and the present tendency, of public opinion; and of the probable result of the election.

It is the purpose of this paper to state what that belief is; with reference to the grounds on which it is founded. It proceeds from those who have no motives which should induce them to mislead or deceive, either themselves or others; and as, from obvious causes, this place is the point, at which, at the present moment, the greatest amount of information on the subject is concentrated; it has been attempted to consider and compare the various parts of this information attentively and fairly, to judge of the whole correctly, and to lay the result honestly before the public. That result, we have the pleasure to say, is, in a high degree, satisfactory and gratifying. It has produced a full conviction, that, since the first bursting out of opposition, which was contemporary with the election of 1825, no period has furnished so strong reasons to expect the re-election of the present chief magistrate, as the present; and that such re-election may be now anticipated with a reasonable degree of certainty.

Of the more general grounds which conduce to this opinion, it is not intended, on this occasion, to speak at any length, because they are equally open to the observation and judgment of all. All can observe, and judge, whether there be not, at least in many parts of the country, a very altered tone of feeling towards the opposition candidate; whether there be not the prevalence of a more sober temper, in judging between him and his competitor; an increasing reluctance to transfer the highest public concerns from hands which have, so far, conducted them wisely and safely; and growing doubts, and hesitation, now approaching to alarm, about the propriety of committing the fortunes of this young republic to one, no otherwise qualified to guide it, no otherwise brought into the number of candidates for the highest office, than as having distinguished himself by a single military achievement. There would appear, we think, to be indications of a solemn pause, of a disposition to reflection; not in partisans and zealots, but in the minds of candid and reasoning men, who have hitherto countenanced the cause of that candidate. They begin to take counsel of their better judgment; to put it to their own consciences, and to inquire, what there is, in his talents, in his civil experience, in his character, and in his temper, so highly fitting him for the situation for which he is proposed, as to justify the experiment of a change?

But, not dwelling on these general indications, it is the immediate purpose of this address to refer to particulars, and to exhibit, with some detail, that view of the subject which has led to the belief above expressed.

In presenting this view, the object will be, not to hold out general and vague encouragement; not to show that the president may be re-elected by a very large majority; but to state the grounds on which we believe there will be a majority for him; and that, consequently, he will be re-elected. This is the first object. Some observations may then properly be made, on the more doubtful though less important question of the amount of that majority, and the extent to which it may be carried, under favorable occurrences, and events not improbable.

In favor of the re-election of the present president, may be reckoned, then, in the first place, the entire votes of the following states viz: all the states of New-England, New-Jersey, Delaware, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, and Louisiana. Whether we regard the representation of these states in congress, or their legislatures at home, or appeal to other just modes of ascertaining the sentiments of their people, the result equally justifies this opinion.

To the votes of these states is next to be added a majority of those of Maryland. Here, again, we think, there is little danger of mistake; since that state lies so contiguous, and information from every part of it is so full and particular. Thus far, the computation is accompanied with as much certainty, as can well belong to such questions.

The next object of inquiry is Kentucky. It is well known that opposition has made Kentucky one great theatre of its active and vigorous operations. It has sought to avail itself of her locality, of her vicinity to the head of the party, of her natural partiality for a southern candidate, of the warm and generous character of her citizens, inclining them to some degree of enthusiasm towards military distinction; and it has artfully connected itself, also, with pre-existing state parties, and internal controversies and rivalships. These means, however, have not been deemed alone sufficient to promise success. The drawing off of Kentucky from an administration, whose measures have given her citizens so much general satisfaction, and the arraying her with those whose opinions, on points which she deems of high interest, are known to be essentially different from her own, has justly been thought an object of no easy attainment. She had, herself, participated in the election of the president, in the last resort; and one of her own citizens, the candidate who had received all her own votes, had been called to fill the first place in the administration. His popularity and weight of character were, of course, among the obstacles to be overcome, by those who wished to overturn the administration; and, to accomplish that end, efforts were to be made, proportioned, at once, to the importance, and to the difficulty of the undertaking.

A storm of abuse has accordingly raged against him, the violence of which has no precedent. A charge of public corruption, having its origin where decorum and delicacy, as well as truth and honor, should have altogether forbidden it; a charge, unsupported by the slightest proof, encountered by every contrary presumption, confuted, in short, by the most conclusive evidence, has been spread abroad, nevertheless, and repeated, and re-echoed, with a vehemence, which for a while, seemed but to increase the more, as the accusation was shown, more and more, to be groundless.

The purpose, however, has, we think, essentially failed. The good sense of the people has met the shock, without being overthrown; and a sense that great injustice has been done to the character of upright and honorable men, is at last pervading the public mind, and producing the just and usual retribution—reaction. The best reason exists for believing, that the whole array of means, thus brought to bear on the cause of the administration in the state, will prove completely ineffectual. In the beginning of August, an election of state officers is there to take place, candidates are already named, distinguished by the side they respectively espouse of the great national controversy. The contest, doubtless, will be a most animated and severe one; but of the result, unshaken confidence is entertained. The people are roused, fully and thoroughly roused. The vote will be, not the vote of a few, not the result of partial attendance at the polls, but the aggregate voice of the whole people of Kentucky. This, of itself, is a substantial ground of hope and security. This election, it need not be concealed, is a point of peculiar interest. If it shall terminate favorably, the whole electoral vote of the state, in favor of the re-election of the present president, is by no means the only important consequence to be expected from it. It will, obviously, be attended with other and broader effects. We now look forward to it with a confidence, which for several months, has gained new strength, in every successive week: and if indications do not greatly deceive us, the hopes of the opposition, at this moment in regard to Kentucky, are effectually shaken.

We believe, then, that the votes of Kentucky are to be enumerated among those favorable to administration.

Adding the votes of Kentucky to those before mentioned, the sum total amounts to nearly one half of all the electoral votes; and, in order to ensure success, it is only farther necessary, that the president should receive a considerable number, less, however, than he obtained on the former election, of the votes of New-York. That he will receive the requisite number of these votes, we entertain no doubt whatever. Information from every part of the state, and the opinions of persons among the most competent to judge, conspire to produce satisfaction on this point. We hazard the prediction, and we are persuaded the intelligent people of that state will, in due time, most fully and triumphantly verify it, that the cause of the opposition is destined to receive in New-York, signal overthrow and defeat.

Such is the view which has convinced us, that, with just and proper efforts, on the part of the friends of the administration there is nothing which can be reasonably expected to prevent the re-election of the present president. And, for the sake of distinctness, we repeat our belief that New-England, New-Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Louisiana, Kentucky, and New York, will make that event sure.

This calculation, we know, will be attacked and disputed. Every part of it will be contradicted and denied. Assurances of a contrary result will be given, in the most positive manner, and under every form which may impose upon credulity. All this is of course. It is not to be expected that our adversaries will admit the probability of our success. This address is not intended for them. It is designed for the friends of the administration; and its purpose will be fully answered, when it shall have solemnly assured those friends that the opinions here expressed are honestly and conscientiously entertained. We warn them against giving credit, either to positive assurances of success and triumph on the other side, in this quarter and in that: or to the numerous reports, charges, accusations and calumnies, which are to be looked for, to be forthcoming through the summer and autumn. Steady confidence and steady efforts are necessary in the present state of things; and steady confidence and steady efforts, be assured, will conduct us safely and happily throughout the crisis. In July, the election of members of congress will take place in Louisiana. Her sentiments will be then again expressed, and we are willing to hear her sentiments. In August, the great contest in Kentucky will be brought to an issue; and we are willing, also, to hear the voice of Kentucky. In the mean time, let every man guard himself, and assist to guard the public, against delusion and imposition.

It will be seen, that, in the foregoing estimate, nothing has been said of Illinois, where the question will be earnestly contested, and which at this moment, may be pronounced to be a doubtful state; that nothing has been said of Virginia, in which state there is a large and rapidly increasing party, thoroughly opposed to the election of the opposition candidate, embodying great worth, intelligence and respectability; and conducting the controversy with spirit and activity. Nor has any thing been said of Pennsylvania. An impression has been made, that this patriotic state has separated herself from her own settled policy, and resolved on committing her interests to an association of political men radically hostile to what she deems the vital principles of the government. A state so intelligent, could be urged into such a course only by some sudden impulse, overcoming, for the time, the influence of deliberate consideration. She will naturally return to her known principles, and her accustomed habits of thinking and acting. In a moment of unsuspecting enthusiasm, she embraced the cause of a military leader. She recedes from her first choice with reluctance, but she does recede. Sooner or later, she will resume her proper position. Great changes, we know have taken place, and are still going on; and if a vigorous and persevering effort be made to extend information, and remove prejudice, well informed men are, at this moment, of opinion, that the vote of Pennsylvania will be given for the administration.

Nor have we said any thing of North Carolina, one of the most unobtrusive and respectable states of the whole Union. She is naturally among the very last to go with those who now claim her association, and demand her aid. The cause which she seems expected to sustain, is opposed to her whole character and her whole history. There is nothing in it to gain her permanent respect or attachment. And there is much reason to hope that she will, herself, take the same view of what is due to her own steady and uniform character. That the cause of the administration is gaining ground, daily, in that state, is beyond doubt or question; and, although the character of this address requires, that no ground of hope should be too strongly stated, nor any expectation raised which is likely to be disappointed, we cannot refrain from saying that recent information places North Carolina near to, or at, the head of those states, which, though highly promising, are still reckoned as doubtful.

Justice to the cause, and to those who have espoused it, requires, that, on this occasion, it should be mentioned, with respect and gratification, that electoral tickets, favorable to the administration, have been formed in Mississippi, Alabama, and some of the districts of Tennessee; and that in all these states, men, among the most distinguished for respectability and influence, intelligence and patriotism, give to such tickets their zealous support.

There is one other point of view in which the general subject may be usefully examined. We have stated what states are considered as reasonably certain for the administration, what probable, and what more doubtful. If we now take the same survey of the prospects of the opposition candidate, what are they? Allow him the votes of South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee, altogether not exceeding forty, and he is in possession of every thing which he can hope to enjoy without a contest. Not one vote north of South Carolina on the east, and of Tennessee on the west, will he be certain of, till it shall be actually given. The whole is controverted ground. If he gain Virginia, it will be only by a struggle: if he gain North Carolina and Pennsylvania, it must be by a struggle, still more violent and doubtful; and, if he gain all three, he is, yet, not president. Kentucky and New-York still oppose obstacles to his success not hitherto overcome, and which, we firmly believe, cannot be overcome.

In thus surveying the different states, one striking truth is fully established, which it is material to notice. It is this; that, were the electors to be chosen, throughout the whole union, in one uniform mode, whatever that mode might be, the president would be re-elected, not only by such a majority as we think he will now obtain, but by one vastly larger. This, we think, can be made evident and unquestionable. If such uniform mode were to be by general ticket in every state, he would not, in that case, lose one vote which is now expected for him; while the entire suffrage of N. York and Maryland, added to what is already secure, would put him far ahead of all competition. On the other hand, if that uniform mode were to be by districts, in all the states, he would be certain of receiving many more votes in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, than he could possibly lose by the change in all other states; and thus his majority be greatly increased. This affords the cheering inference, that a majority of the electors of the United States are favorable to the present administration, and desire the president's re-election. We believe this is so; and that, if the whole country could be polled to-morrow, he would have a decided and vast majority.

It remains only to remind the friends of THE CAUSE that this is the moment for spirited and vigorous action, as well as for constancy and firmness. The great engine played against the administration is calumny; not the ebullition of individuals, not the occasional extravagance of an irresponsible press, but an organized system of detraction and falsehood. In the language of the DAILY, "THE PUBLIC PRESS IS TO BE BROUGHT TO BEAR" on every man who is its enemy, and whose talents and character are obstacles to its success. What they mean is, that the public press, from Maine to Louisiana, is to denounce and defame every such man, and proclaim him an object of public hatred, or public scorn, in utter disregard of all truth, and with no fault to lay to his charge, except resistance to their will. We feel the deepest humiliation, not as friends of the administration, but as American citizens, at the countenance given, by those from whom better things were expected, to this atrocious practice of personal abuse. We see, with mortification and grief, as well as with something of irrepressible indignation, instances, not solitary, in which outrageous slander the lowest and most disgusting scandal and defamation on public and private character, does not turn away from its authors the liberal streams of patronage.

If we may judge of the manner in which power will be exercised, by the means by which it is sought to be obtained, there is enough, truly, to alarm our fears, and call forth our exertions. America has ceased to be America—this country is no longer the country which we have been taught from our cradles to love with the warmest attachment,—if there be not virtue enough yet left among us to meet with stern rebuke, and punish with just retribution, this unbounded license of falsehood, this ferocity of calumny, which threatens to plunge society into violence, or carry it back to barbarism.

Relying on a good cause, let the friends of the administration breast this storm. Let them appeal to the good sense and the good feeling of the people. Let them labor to dispel prejudice, confute error, and correct misrepresentation, and meet plain falsehoods with plain denials. Let them exert the powers of truth and of reason, to convince those around them of the importance of the present crisis. Events are on the wing, which will leave consequences of long duration and strong bearing, for evil or for good, on these United States. If our own opportunities of observation, upon men and things, have enabled us to form any true judgment, the success of the opposition candidate would be fraught with disastrous consequences to the government and to the country. Convinced, for ourselves, deeply, that the great question nearly concerns the public safety, prosperity, and happiness, and resolved, for ourselves, one and all, to do our whole duty, in exerting our utmost endeavors to carry on—THE CAUSE to a triumphant result, we now commend it earnestly to the faithful guardianship of the real friends of civil liberty; we commend it to all who value good order and social happiness; we commend it to whomsoever feels an interest, for himself or his children in the civil institutions of his country; we commend it, above all, to the gracious protection of that Being, whose favor hath hitherto not deserted this nation, amidst all the difficulties which have beset her path.