Trainman News

Political Pot Bubbles,
But Date Of Election
Is
Anyone's Guess

By
JACK WILLIAMS
TRAINMAN NEWS Canadian Correspondent

With the summer over, the political pot is starting to bubble in earnest. Prime Minister St. Laurent's recent western tour-complete with speeches on matters of local concern and pats on the head for school children---had everything but official recognition as a political move. Progressive Conservative Leader George Drew quickly made plans to follow hard on the heels of St. Laurent.

Just when an election will come is anyone's guess. The most popular view has been next fall, which is based on the assumption that a vote this fall is highly unlikely and that the coronation ceremonies scheduled for June reduce the chances of a spring election. "If's" and "but's" hedge in all the guesses and there is strong opinion in Ottawa that Drew hurriedly planned his tour to avoid the Liberals cashing in on St. Laurent's trip by a snap fall election.

While such a move is possible, it appears highly unlikely. One major indication against it is the importance of a new budget before the government goes to the people. There has been a flurry of predictions, composed largely of tax reduction forecasts. Very strict secrecy always surrounds the budget but the general opinion in Ottawa is that, while preliminary conferences of government officials have commenced, they are still in an early stage, and there is a long way to go before the changes take final shape.

Drafting a budget is a big job. Officials are assigned to look into all kinds of possibilities before a decision is made by the cabinet. The ministers must know just what the effect of any change will be, how much revenue will be gained or lost, what sections of the population will benefit or lose, and what the administrative problems will be. There are always numerous groups waiting outside the finance minister's office door with brief cases of ideas as to just what should be done. Hearing these delegations and taking into consideration the effect of the changes they propose takes time. These interviews have just recently got under way.

But this does not interfere with the boys who like to get into the budget guessing game. A short time ago speculative newspaper stories appeared simultaneously in two Toronto newspapers. They were earmarked as being of the so-called "exclusive" type which is supposed to mean "straight - from - the - horse's - mouth" stuff. Both were identical in detail. They predicted, for instance, that personal income taxes would be reduced five or 10 per cent; corporation taxes would come down two per cent; some excise taxes would be sharply reduced, and the $2.50 radio license would be wiped out.

Altho it is much too early to pin faith on this kind of crystal gazing there seems every likelihood that Canadians will be given an election budget, which means there will be the kind of tax changes that will make them happy. Parliament is scheduled to reassemble in November and Ottawa gossip points to an early budget, possibly January. If that course is followed, a spring election prior to the coronation might become a definite possibility.

The Prime Minister's western tour naturally attracted a good deal of attention and there were plenty of writers with their fingers poised over a typewriter ready to place interpretations on what he had to say. On one occasion he got around to discussing the election possibilities, boiled down all that he actually said was that there would be an election within the next two years, which is required by law.