Springfield Weekly Republican

BIG CROP REPORTS GOOD FOR COOLIDGE

Argue That Prosperous Farmers Always Stay Regular—Believe La Follette Loses Ground Steadily

By David Lawrence

Washington, Sept. 5—Optimism is coming in from the Northwest in such a steady stream that genuine happiness is written in the faces of the many officials of the government who have had to worry about the agricultural situation in the last three years.

Because this is a campaign year, there is a tendency to discount optimism. The first reports about bumper crops, it was originally thought, might be exaggerated. But the letters received by the war finance corporation have continued to be of such a favorable character that no longer are any doubts entertained.

Many a letter received from responsible sources and well informed bankers and business men coincides with other communications. The simple truth is that these letter writers have no political axes to grind. The war finance corporation is an agency which lends funds. It already has lent millions. It is the emergency institution which is concerned with the credit situation generally in the agricultural regions. If crop conditions are good, the money lent will be coming back. It is to the interest of the war finance corporation not to be deceived. So its information may be taken as authentic so far as official data gathered from agents is concerned. It is supposed to be a non-political, non-partisan institution. And it exudes optimism today for the first time in many months.

Predicts Big Increase

Eugene Meyer, Jr., managing director of the war finance corporation, is conservative and cautious in his statements. His latest declaration is that there will be an increase of over 30,000,000 bushels in the wheat crop of North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana, as compared with 1923. This increased yield was developed on from 10 to 15 per cent less acreage than before.

This is perhaps the most significant fact about the agricultural situation. For, while agricultural prices are high, relatively speaking, the farmer has produced more per acre, so his financial return is correspondingly greater. It means that even with a drop in prices the farmer would still be better off than before. His return per capita will be greater than last year in any event.

What has happened in a sense is that favorable weather in America coincided with unfavorable weather in other wheat-producing countries. Will these conditions continue next year? Nobody knows. That's the gamble in farming always. But the bumper crop and the high prices are the best piece of good fortune the agriculturalists in this country have had in a generation. It is the succession of bad years which freezes up the credit situation.

The war finance corporation looks forward to a general reduction in indebtedness all along the lines. Bankers are writing enthusiastically that the turn has come and that sections of the country which were hardest hit have been particularly favored with good crops. Corn crops are not so good as weather conditions have not been altogether favorable, but the high prices have helped the corn growers materially. The cattle raisers are not as well off as the others but the war finance corporation says pointedly:-

Resume Cattle Buying

"An indirect effect of great importance to the breeding end of the livestock business—which may be hoped for a little later if not immediately—is the resumption of cattle buying by the Northwest. It is reasonable, in any event, to expect better prices and a broader market for breeding animals in view of the general trend of other agricultural prices in the upward direction. The outlook for hides has been improving for the past two months."

The word agriculture is a broad term. No doubt there are sections and individuals still wrapped in pessimism but the general trend is quite the opposite.

Politics this year, as always, is so much interwoven with the prosperity and materialistic side of the electorate that favorable agricultural conditions cannot but be viewed as a vital factor in the coming presidential elections. The discontent and rebellion in the West in the Republican party has coincided with if it has not been caused by unfavorable farm conditions. Radicalism rarely thrives in contentment.

President Coolidge has been told that the improvement in the agricultural situation will not altogether eradicate radicalism this year in the West but it will reduce by large blocks the radical vote of other years so that the big question is whether the normal gap between the Republican and Democratic parties in the solidly Republican states is big enough to permit of defections to La Follette and still leave a Coolidge plurality. The Republican theory is that if things go well with the farmer he will not want change because he dislikes uncertainty. Nature is therefore the biggest ally Mr. Coolidge's political campaign has won.

For it is admitted that a continuance of distressing conditions would have meant serious losses in the electoral college. Instead, today there is supreme confidence in the White House that the West will stay regular.

(Copyright, 1924, by The Republican Publishing company.)