The New Haven Union

New York, Oct. 10.-A sign of progress in the New York political campaign today was that wiseacres on both sides had begun to make estimates. The Hearst people were elated over an estimate published in Callier's Weekly yesterday, which is anti-Hearst, that their candidate would get one-third of the normal Republican vote. They expect a heavy defection of old line Democrats, but believe the balance will be in their favor.

New York state above Harlem river which usually gives anywhere from 60,000 to 100,000 Republican plurality, they say, will break even between Hughes and Hearst, and that Hearst will have 80,000 plurality below the Harlem river, consequently will be elected governor by about 80,000 votes.

Republicans, of course, treated this estimate with derision. Their own figures are that Brooklyn, which last year gave Hearst 12,000 plurality in a three-cornered contest, will give Hughes 20,000 plurality and that Hearst will not get to the Harlem river with more than 40,000 votes at the outside. As to the Republican plurality up the state, they say that instead of being normal level, they will get so many Democrats, and at the same time hold their own votes so closely, that they will come down to the Harlem river with at least 120,000 plurality. On these figures, therefore, Hughes will be elected by 80,000.

Republicans report that the Hughes tour up the state is having a good effect and lining up all Republicans who may have been wavering. They also point with glee to the appearance of prominent Democrats at the Hughes meetings.

On the other hand Hearst meetings show an unabated enthusiasm and his tour up the state beginning tomorrow night is expected to carry the war into Republican strongholds.

Betting continues light at about 5 to 2 against Hearst.