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Atlanta, Fulton County, Georgia
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Poll of 300 economists in Washington predicts moderate 1954 recession with 5% GNP drop, no major depression; views include orthodox recession, rolling adjustment, or inventory readjustment with possible upturn.
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WASHINGTON-(INS)- An informal poll of 300 economists predicted yesterday that the nation will have a moderate business recession in 1954, but none of them believe that any major depression is in sight.
The "show of hands" vote was taken without any count of votees at the meeting of the American Statistical Association.
However, the majority of the economists agreed that the economy is in an "orthodox" recession whose duration cannot be charted accurately.
A smaller group believes a "rolling adjustment" is in progress. They feel that individual sections of the economy are undergoing readjustments but no drastic over-all effects are in sight.
A still smaller group expressed the view that only an "inventory" readjustment is underway with an upturn likely in three to six months.
Most of the group predicted that the Gross National Product of the U. S. will be reduced about 5 per cent below this year's record. A few thought the drop would be less and a few said it would be more.
A majority expressed the feeling that the economic decline would continue through 1954, although several predicted an upturn sometime during the coming year.
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Domestic News Details
Primary Location
Washington
Event Date
Yesterday
Outcome
predicted moderate business recession in 1954 with gross national product reduced about 5 per cent below this year's record; economic decline to continue through 1954, with possible upturn during the year.
Event Details
Informal poll of 300 economists at American Statistical Association meeting predicted moderate recession in 1954; majority agreed on orthodox recession; smaller group on rolling adjustment; smallest group on inventory readjustment with upturn in three to six months.