New Hampshire Statesman

From the London Times.

NEXT YEAR'S COTTON.

A revolution is now impending which may affect the fortunes of states and empires far more extensively than any changes of dynasty or government. In all ages of the world the tracks of commerce have determined the relative prosperity of kingdoms, and the track of the greatest commerce ever known may soon be diverted from one point to another. Amsterdam rose and Venice fell as the trade of Europe with the East flowed in a new channel, and some countries will infallibly fall while others rise, if the cotton trade should be transferred to new ports and new people. The Confederate States of America are fully aware of the magnitude of the stake, but they believe themselves sure of the game. They hold that we must have cotton somehow, which is true enough; but they proceed to argue that we can obtain it only from them, and that they, consequently, are masters of the situation. We think it, however, by no means certain that their confidence will be justified. They supplied us with admirable punctuality, no doubt; but the disturbances in the Union have alarmed us; we have advertised our wants, and already a score of candidates, neither ineligible nor unenterprising, are competing for a custom rising to £40,000,000 a year. If this trade should actually find fresh channels, there is no man living who can calculate the national vicissitudes which may ensue.

India is making an eager bid for the prize. She is a favorite candidate, and combines, on the whole, the greatest number of recommendations. India possesses all the requisite conditions of soil, climate, cheap labor, and practised husbandry. The Governor-General of India has just reminded the Manchester people that the Hindoos have really nothing to learn, as respects the cultivation of cotton, from any other agriculturists on the face of the globe They may be open to instruction as to picking, cleaning and packing, but they have grown cotton from time immemorial, and thoroughly understand the business. There is plenty of available ground, too, though not exactly in the sense imagined by some parties at home. India contains no large tracts of unoccupied and fertile land, such as could be brought under cultivation in a few months by speculators in America. There are no vast districts of virgin soil inviting the labors of the husbandman. Cotton must be raised by the extension of small. isolated farms, and brought to port by the multiplication and improvement of roads. If channels, however, are found for these rivulets of supply, they will form in the end a mighty stream. Cotton will flow fast enough to England as soon as the tide once sets in the right direction. There is, indeed, one district where operations might be undertaken on an extensive scale, and under official patronage. Certain wild parts of Chittagong are excellently adapted for the production of cotton, and immediately available for the experiment. The Kookies, who inhabit the country, are at present chiefly noted for their practice of invading the subjacent plains, and carrying off human heads, and it has appeared to the authorities that if this occupation could be exchanged for that of growing cotton, it would be a beneficial result. So they are half inclined to make a start at this place on their own account. The Lieutenant-Governor of Bengal observes that in a few years' time tea will undoubtedly become the great staple export of that Presidency, though no such produce would ever have been heard of if Government itself had not set the example of cultivation. He argues, therefore, with some plausibility, that if the Kookies can be converted to honest industry, and Manchester be supplied with cotton by one and the same venture, it is worth while for Government to repeat the exceptional intervention which answered so well in the case of tea. For the rest, anxious as they are to promote the views of people at home, the authorities can only act in one single direction. They will do their best to make or mend roads, beginning in those districts where the actual crop of cotton is greatest. Every thing else must be done by purchasers and their agents, by the natural operation of demand upon supply. Government will lend every possible facility to the proceedings, but it can do no more.

Yesterday we placed before the public the prospects of Egypt in this great competition, and the intelligence was derived from the Viceroy's own mouth. Said Pasha was perfectly alive to the magnitude of the question and to the interests of his country. Make Egypt our cotton-field, and it would be linked to us by the firmest of ties. We doubt, however, whether there is much to be done there. The country lies at a convenient distance from us. it is fertile to a proverb, and well suited to the growth of cotton. But labor is not very abundant. The population is not so numerous but that the absorption of a few thousand hands on the Suez Canal scheme forms an appreciable drain, and, though the reduction and dispersion of the army tends to feed the market for the moment, the economies of the Court may not be permanent. Otherwise the Egyptian agriculturists are open to terms. The peasants are ignorant, but perfectly able, as the Viceroy informed his visitors, to recognize their own interests. Show them that the production of cotton will pay better than the production of corn, and they will all take to cotton-growing to-morrow. They are poor, however, and dependent on advances, so that, though his Highness offered all desirable assistance, it is not likely that Egypt will take the place of America. Still, she may send a good contribution. Her exports of cotton have increased in the last four years from 90,000 bales to nearly 150,000, and may continue to improve.

This great question is naturally regarded with very different eyes by the two sections of the late American Union. The South, as we have said, imagines its position unassailable, and is disposed to hope that in our craving for cotton, and our inability to procure it elsewhere, we shall be compelled to break the blockade. The Northerners reckon otherwise. They argue that, what with stocks on hand and supplies on their way to us, we are safe till next spring, by which time the results of the movement in India will probably be visible in the form of large importations. We certainly look forward to that period with considerable interest. It will bring a pretty good indication of what India can do for us. It will show how far the cultivation of cotton can be pushed in a single season at short notice, and what improvement can be given to means of communication under similar conditions. The interests at stake are enormous, but the question will ultimately be decided by the operation of natural laws. There will not be much room for national predilections or political favor. Whatever country sends us the best cotton, at the cheapest rate, and with the greatest regularity, will command the market. It would be fortunate in many ways if the prize should fall to India, but commerce looks to its own needs only. We doubt if any country could have driven America from the field if America had remained exempt from troubles, but the contingency that has now happened has been so long and so uneasily anticipated that the actual event tells strongly against the chances of America, and in favor of a fresh competition. If the civil war should last another year. the cotton trade will probably be revolutionized. and with it the fortunes and destinies of States.