Mcallen Daily Monitor

Drought, Insects Give Unasked Aid In Cutting Down U.S. Wheat Surplus
By CARL C. CRANMER
WASHINGTON (P)—The twin scourges of mankind—drought and insects—threaten to wipe out crop prospects of thousands of western farmers this year. Despite their merciless destruction, however, they may make the job of AAA easier and shorter.

For the second consecutive year, Nature may act more effectively than the government in forcing down the wheat surplus, while agriculture adjustment officials are pointing out that the drought may impress upon farmers the "crop insurance" feature of AAA contracts in the future.

The April 1 crop report forecast a harvest this year of 710,000,000 bushels. This would have been larger than the 527,000,000 bushels raised last year when drought caused one of the smallest crops in many years.

But it would have been smaller than the 1928-32 average of 844,000,000 bushels.

No Famine Danger

Now, after a month of dust storms and scorching weather in the wheat country, the crop reporting board forecasts a winter wheat crop of only 461,000,000 bushels, a drop of one million bushels a day for a month for winter wheat alone, and the report does not take account of the greater damage that may have been caused since May 1.

In the northwest as much as one-fifth of the spring wheat seeding in some states is reported not yet done, while the drifting of soil has uncovered much seed already in the ground.

But unlike old times, there is little danger of famine for the country as a whole. With a spring wheat crop equal only to 1931, the smallest in recent years, and a winter crop as forecast, there would be a total yield of about 575,000,000 bushels.

Huge Supplies Stored

This is about 25,000 bushels less than the country normally uses in a year. Stored away in elevators and granaries from bumper years, however, is a carryover estimated to be 270,000,000 bushels by July 1. With such a crop and carryover the United States could export its quota of 90,000,000 bushels under the world wheat agreement and have a surplus of 155,000,000 bushels by July 1, 1935. This would be just about the normal carryover that existed from 1922 to 1928, compared with nearly 400,000,000 bushels in 1933 when more than one-half the world's surplus was stored in the United States.

Thus, the intention to get rid of the surplus which has held down prices would be very nearly accomplished—by the aid of nature and at the expense of thousands of farmers in drought-blighted areas.

War On Grasshoppers

First action of officials to meet the emergency has been to designate 355 counties in 12 states where wheat conditions are the worst. Nearly 70 per cent of the farmers signing up to reduce acreage are in this area.

The contracts require a farmer to plant at least 54 per cent of his base acreage in order to collect his benefit check. In the designated counties where seeding would be a waste of time, the farmer may obtain a waiver on this requirement from his local control association.

In that way, many farmers cooperating with the AAA will have their benefit payments as a sort of crop insurance, even if the drought destroys their entire crop and they do not raise a grain of wheat. Total benefit payments will total about $95,000,000, of which $66,000,000 already has gone out. The remainder will go out this summer.

Drought also increases the hatching of grasshoppers, aggravating the farm menace. The government is shipping 50 carloads of poison bait each day into western areas where infestation is expected to be the worst with the first shipments going to Montana and Idaho.

Dry Areas To Get Special AAA Benefits

Day after day a merciless sun has beaten down from cloudless skies, sapping moisture from America's great wheatlands. Thick clouds of dust have been spread across sections of western farm country. The result is wheat crop reduction—and better hatching season for grasshoppers. The AAA has agreed to waive part of its contract with farmers in the most severely drought-stricken areas (shaded portions of the map above), allowing them to collect benefit payments whether or not they produce a grain of wheat.